Hurricane Ana Takes Aim at British Columbia

Yes.

Unfortunately, I have to leave soon and can’t go into it in more detail. Just learned about it today…was looking into the local weather here in the Pacific Northwest because it’s quite windy. That’s not from Ana, though. More tomorrow on this interesting Central Pacific tropical cyclone.

For now, here’s the current CPHC forecast discussion – yes, Category 1 Ana has apparently been around for a while. However, it’s forecast to hit Canada as a tropical storm (Edit – At tropical storm strength, but as an extratropical cyclone).

WTPA45 PHFO 252035
TCDCP5

HURRICANE ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 49
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 AM HST SAT OCT 25 2014

THE EYE OF ANA HAS BEGUN TO FILL IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS ITS
SATELLITE APPEARANCE IS DEGRADING. CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING
IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT WHILE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
ALONG THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE EYE WALL. ALL THREE FIX AGENCIES
DETERMINED CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES OF 4.0/65 KT…AND CIMSS SATCON
FROM 1542Z CAME IN AT 62 KT. AS A RESULT…ANA WILL REMAIN A
HURRICANE WITH AN INTENSITY OF 65 KT.

ANA IS ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
045/33 KT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS ANA REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH FROM THE WEST. THE TRANSITION PROCESS INTO A
STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS THE
TWO FEATURES INCREASINGLY INTERACT…WITH THE FORWARD MOTION OF
EXTRATROPICAL ANA EXPECTED TO SLOW CONSIDERABLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 24 HOURS WITH SOME INCREASE IN
SPREAD OCCURRING AFTER ANA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL LATER SUNDAY. AT
36 HOURS AND BEYOND…FORECAST POSITIONS ARE BEING SUPPLIED BY THE
NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER AND ARE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE
ECMWF AT THAT TIME. BY 24 HOURS THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW OF ANA IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEARING THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST OF CANADA.

SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS…WITH
ANA FORECAST TO BE A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ANA
IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH…BUT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS RATHER LOW…AROUND 10 KT ACCORDING TO A
RECENT CIMSS ANALYSIS…DUE TO THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STEERING
ANA. AS A RESULT…THE SHORT TERM WEAKENING OF ANA WILL BE DRIVEN BY
INCREASINGLY COOLER OCEAN TEMPERATURES…ALREADY DOWN TO ABOUT 20C
AND DROPPING TO 15C LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE
FORECAST CURRENTLY CALLS FOR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TO OCCUR BY 36
HOURS…BUT THE COMBINATION OF RAPIDLY DECREASING OCEAN TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COULD LEAD TO EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
CLOSELY TO ICON THROUGH 24 HOURS AND IS THEREAFTER BASED ON INPUT
FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER…WHICH MAINTAINS THE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW AT OR NEAR STORM FORCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 36.3N 160.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 39.3N 156.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 44.0N 147.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 48.0N 143.0W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/1800Z 49.0N 142.0W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/1800Z 52.4N 133.8W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 29/1800Z…ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER WROE

Update, October 26, 2:55 p.m.: Well, the CPHC issued its last discussion on Ana, which has now transitioned to an extratropical cyclone. It’s still on target to hit British Columbia at tropical storm strength.
 
five-day
 

Alerts for: Central Coast – coastal sections
Warnings

10:46 AM PDT Sunday 26 October 2014
Wind warning in effect for:

Central Coast – coastal sections

Strong winds that may cause damage are expected or occurring.

The remains of Tropical Storm Ana will move towards the BC Coast late Monday. Consequently, southeast winds will increase to 90 km/h over exposed coastal sections by Monday evening.

Loose objects may be tossed by the wind and cause injury or damage. High winds may toss loose objects or cause tree branches to break.

Wind warnings are issued when there is a significant risk of damaging winds.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required. Please monitor local media or Weatheradio. Email reports of severe weather to pacificstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet with the hashtag #BCStorm.

Environment Canada

I’m still trying to figure out why this is happening. I had scanned headlines saying Ana was a threat to Hawaii. So why the change in direction to BC?

Because it got picked up by a stronger low pressure system that it appears to be merging into:
 

Gosh, that’s a big system. Keep in mind that I’m in southern Oregon, about 150 miles from the coast. It shouldn’t be too bad here, per the NWS:

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014

Valid 00Z Mon Oct 27 2014 – 00Z Wed Oct 29 2014

***Unsettled weather continues for the Pacific Northwest***

***Above normal temperatures to continue from central and southern Great
Plains to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic***

***Relatively quiet weather pattern elsewhere***

The Pacific Northwest can expect multiple rounds of precipitation over the
next few days as onshore flow and a strong Pacific storm system moves near
the region early this week. A sub-990mb low, associated with the
post-tropical remnants of hurricane Ana, is expected to track toward
British Columbia by Tuesday morning and bring a cold front near the coast,
along with steady precipitation.

Nice to know what generates your weather. When I moved here, somebody told me they once had a hurricane in Eugene. I figured it was just a strong windstorm because the ocean is so cold up here. Now I figure it was probably a strong extratropical cyclone.

Anyway, that post-season report on Ana will certainly be interesting!



Categories: Random thoughts, Weather

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