More Atlantic Tropical Activity Possible in the Coming Week

Update, October 25, 11:47 a.m.: As usual, the NHC called it right. That low in the Florida Straits that I was watching has been picked up by the westerlies and zipped away before it could form a tropical cyclone. As for regeneration of former Tropical Depression 9, the experts don’t rule it out, but they’re not giving very good odds of it developing over the next five days.

Right now, I don’t see anything on the GFS model and will do a new post if something pops up.

Update, October 24, 1:05 p.m.:
 

The bottom left arrow shows the approximate location, per the NHC, of the remains of TD 9.  They're still not sure if it will redevelop. The upper right arrow shows the system that the GFS computer model develops.  This doesn't appear on the NHC five-day graphic - perhaps it isn't expected to be a tropical system?  Image source

The bottom left arrow shows the approximate location, per the NHC, of the remains of TD 9. They’re still not sure if it will redevelop.
The upper right arrow shows the system that the GFS computer model develops. This doesn’t appear on the NHC five-day graphic – perhaps it isn’t expected to be a tropical system? Image source – note, it takes a long time to load


 


 
Update, October 23, 2:16 p.m. Pacific: The remnants of Tropical Depression Nine are over Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula just now and that may be the end of it. However, the National Hurricane Center says there is a chance of regeneration over the Caribbean in a few days.

I’m only an amateur but don’t see that on the currently posted GFS run. I do see a system forming over the Bahamas and then heading towards Bermuda, though I think it gets absorbed by the westerlies before reaching that beleaguered island that’s already taken strong hits from Fay and Gonzalo. There is nothing on the NHC five-day graphic about this, though. Time will tell.
 


 
3:23 p.m. Pacific: Per the NHC (see below), the threat will be relatively local. However, this amateur sees activity in the northern Caribbean – apparently from other disturbances – later in the week. Time will tell. Here’s the special NHC report on the Gulf of Mexico system:
 
two_atl_5d0

Tropical Weather Outlook Text

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
425 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook to update first system

1. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft did find a small well-
defined low in the southern Bay of Campeche. However, the
thunderstorms associated with the low are still not organized enough
for this system to be considered a tropical cyclone. Upper-level
winds could become more conducive for further development by
tomorrow, and this system has the potential to become a tropical
cyclone before it moves inland over the Mexican state of Campeche
late Wednesday or early Thursday. Later in the week, tropical
cyclone formation appears unlikely due to interaction with
a cold front while the system is over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. Interests in Campeche and elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula
should monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm
warnings could need to be issued with short notice.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

2. A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles south of the Azores. This system is
producing winds of gale-force and could acquire some subtropical
characteristics during the next day or so while it moves west-
southwestward at about 15 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to
become less conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation
by Thursday and development after that time is not likely.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW.

Forecaster Blake

Update, October 21, 10:38 a.m. Pacific: Per the current NHC forecast discussion, this afternoon they’re going to send a Hurricane Hunter into that disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico. Will post an update in about 6-7 hours on that.

Update, October 20, 11:17 a.m.: As an amateur, I am especially bad at discerning which low-pressure systems shown on the GFS model will be tropical. Today, the NHC is still keeping an eye on 92L, which I mentioned yesterday, in the East Atlantic, but they’re more excited about that Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean area system, which is now an invest called 93L. And the GFS does show its possible development into something strong near populated areas, though far enough out that it’s hoodooland at this point. The 93L system is probably the one to watch more closely, unless you are in the area of the Azores and Canary Islands.
 
five day

Tropical Weather Outlook Text

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Surface and upper-air observations indicate that the low pressure
system located over the southwestern Bay of Campeche is gradually
becoming better defined. This system has the potential to become a
tropical cyclone during the next two to three days while it moves
slowly eastward to east-northeastward, before it interacts and
possibly merges with a frontal system towards the end of the week.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the disturbance tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.
Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…60 percent.

2. A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores. This system is
producing gale-force winds and could gradually acquire some
subtropical characteristics during the next few days while it
moves slowly westward over relatively warm waters. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…30 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW.

Forecaster Stewart

Update, 3:58 p.m. Pacific: Gosh, 92L already looks pretty strong on the water vapor imagery:
 
wv0-lalo
 
At 2 p.m. Eastern, the NHC said it was 100 miles west of the Canaries. Here are some images today from the Canaries (Spanish language); apparently one person is dead.
 

Source (Spanish)


 


 
Original post:
 
The National Hurricane Center has two areas of interest marked on its five-day graphic, now that ex-Gonzalo is departing the scene.

Per this amateur’s read of the current GFS model run, the easternmost area, which is already an invest (92L), looks to have the most likelihood to develop next, and it could get pretty intense – not good news for nearby islands.

However, the Caribbean-area possibility could affect more people over the long term.
 
five day

Tropical Weather Outlook Text

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gonzalo, located several hundred miles east of Newfoundland.

1. A low pressure system has developed over the extreme southwestern
Bay of Campeche just to the southeast of Vera Cruz, Mexico. Some
gradual development of this disturbance is possible during the next
several days while it moves east-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…30 percent.

2. A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a couple of hundred miles west of the Canary Islands. This
system is producing gale-force winds, and the low could gradually
acquire subtropical characteristics during the next several days
while it moves slowly westward to west-northwestward over relatively
warm waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…30 percent.

Forecaster Stewart



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