A Little Atlantic Activity

Update, October 11, 2014, 10:47 a.m., Pacific: Well, we have Fay!

The NHC is now giving the tropical wave behind Fay, the one known as 90L, a 60% chance of developing over the next five days. This storm is likely to impact the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola, they say.
 
five day outlook

Tropical Weather Outlook Text

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located several hundred miles south of Bermuda.

1. Disorganized shower activity continues in association with a
tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Leeward
Islands. While no significant development of this system appears
likely during the next day or two, environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for tropical cyclone formation by early
next week. This disturbance should move generally west-
northwestward at about 10 mph during the next several days, and
interests in the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola should
monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…60 percent.

2. Widespread but disorganized showers and thunderstorms, located
several hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, are associated
with a westward-moving tropical wave. Upper-level winds are not
favorable, and significant development of this system remains
unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

Forecaster Kimberlain

This amateur, however, reads the GFS current run as showing no development for the next several days, then something of the eastern Bahamas that quickly moves out to sea…but then, I was wrong yesterday. We’ll see!

The National Hurricane Center has designated a subtropical system as Number 7, saying that it has a brief window where it may turn into a tropical cyclone.

On the GFS, this amateur sees 07L quickly getting caught in the westerlies without developing, but it certainly has some beautiful banding and central convection on the current satellite view:
 
NOAA

There is also a tropical wave, designated 90L, behind it that the GFS shows possibly developing…but that development is too far ahead to be reliable. However, Jeff Masters thinks 90L is the one to watch; the NHC disagrees:
 
five day forecast

Tropical Weather Outlook Text

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK…Corrected
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014

Corrected to change category of first system from low to medium

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly
formed Subtropical Depression Seven located several hundred miles
south of Bermuda.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has changed
little in organization today. However, environmental conditions are
conducive for gradual development of this system during the next
several days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at about
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…30 percent.

2. A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms located several
hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands is associated with
a westward-moving tropical wave. Upper-level winds are not
favorable, and significant development of this system is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

Forecaster Kimberlain



Categories: Weather

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