Bardarbunga Volcano Eruption (Month 2)

 

Original post (month 1)

Resources:

Webcam
 
VAST (SO2 forecast – not updated since September 22nd)

 
 

 
 


 
Update, October 28, 11:14 a.m. Pacific: Aviation code: Orange. Today’s note will be the last for month 2. Tomorrow we’ll start a new post for month 3 of this long-lasting eruption. Anyway the eruption is not visible to scientists today due to weather conditions, but no drastic changes are noted. Reportedly, very high SO2 levels were documented in parts of Iceland last weekend.

Update, October 27, 4:42 p.m. Pacific: Aviation code: Orange. Per the scientists (emphasis added):

27.10.2014, 11:00 UTC – Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection.

  • The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun continues with similar intensity.
  • Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong. Over 200 earthquakes have been detected in the caldera over the weekend. There off 44 larger then magnitude 3,0. The biggest ones were M5,3 at 05:54 on Sunday and at 01:05 tonight.
  • The GPS station in the centre of Bardarbunga show that the subsidence of the caldera continues with similar rate as it has done over the last few weeks. Observation from air on Friday show that the depression in the caldera is 40 meters.
  • Geothermal heat is increasing in Bardarbunga. A cauldron in the southeast corner of Bardarbunga has deepened about 25 meters over a one month period. The depression is considered to be linked to the depression of the Bardarbunga caldera.
  • Over 70 smaller earthquakes are detected in the dyke over the weekend. The biggest was M2.1 at 11:51 on Sunday.
  • GPS measurements in the active area show minor changes.
  • No change was detected in water monitoring that cannot be explained by changing weather.

The same three likely scenarios are proposed.

 

 


 

Update, October 26, 2:42 p.m. Pacific: Aviation code: Orange. Per the IMO earth scientist:

26 October 2014 12:00 – from geoscientist on duty

Approximately 80 earthquakes have been detected around the Bárðarbunga caldera. The strongest events were M5.3 today at 05:48 on the southeastern caldera rim and M4.7 yesterday at 12:10 on the northern rim. Seven additional events were larger than M4 and around five between M3.0-3.9.

Seismic activity on the caldera rim has significantly decreased in terms of number and strength of events following the M5.3 earthquake this morning. Temporary low activity has previously been observed for several M>5 events and can not be interpreted as a decrease of the overall activity. The subsidence rate of the caldera had shortly increased around one hour after the M5.3 and is now again back to normal rates, see graph, which also is a frequent observation associated with M>5 earthquakes in Bárðarbunga.

Around 20 events have been detected in the northern part of the dyke intrusion; the strongest was 2.1 at 11:51 yesterday. Activity has been low around Tungnafellsjökull, Herðubreið and Askja during the last 24 hours. The eruption ongoing, but rarely visible so far today.

4:38 p.m.:
 

 
The lava field is that entire gray area, not just the incandescent sections.
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Update, October 25, 11:52 a.m.: Aviation code: Orange. Per the IMO geoscientist:

25 October 2014 12:00 – from geoscientist on duty

Seismic activity on the Bárðarbunga caldera rim continues at comparably high rates as in recent days. Activity in the dyke intrusion was rather low during the last 26 hours since the last report, seismicity around Herðubreið has slightly decreased.

Approximately 110 earthquakes have been detected around the Bárðarbunga caldera. Strongest events were M5.2 today at 01:48 on the northern caldera rim and M5.0 yesterday at 10:23 on the north-eastern rim. Additionally, seven earthquakes were in the range of M4.0-4.9 and a dozen M3.0-3.9.

Around 25 events have been detected in the northern part of the dyke intrusion, all below M1.5. About 20 earthquakes were detected around Herðubreið, none of them exceeded M2.0. No visual observation of the eruption so far today.

 


 
3:59 p.m.: Bardarbunga is said to sit on “the hottest portion of the North Atlantic mantle plume.” I think they mean Iceland, not specifically Bardarbunga – those plumes are pretty big, if they exist (PDF). Some experts, it’s reported (PDF, page 25), even “speculate that there is a link between Iceland and the Siberian Traps and that the volcanic track between them is hidden beneath the Polar ocean (e.g. Burke and Torsvik, 2004; Chernysheva et al., 2005)” – that’s not news, though.

Yeah, any Icelandic eruption is especially interesting.

Anyway, the following satellite image was taken on the 21st, but today the University of Iceland reports that glowing puddle covers an area of some 63 km2.
 

 

October 24, 2014, 12:53 p.m. Pacific: Aviation code: Orange. Per scientists, things continue at the same level.

October 22, 2014, 11:41 a.m. Pacific: Aviation code: Orange. Per the scientists today, things remain about the same. The potential for a jokulhaup from this eruption has reportedly led decision makers to revamp plans for an old bridge downstream.

October 21, 2014, 10:43 a.m. Pacific: Aviation code: Orange. It sounds like the eruption continues as it has been doing. The Iceland Review reports that SO2 pollution has been extreme last night and this morning in southeast Iceland.

This tweet links to an Icelandic-language article:
 

 
Gisli Gislason has posted a remarkably laid-back volcano video of footage from some of his overflights:
 

Yes, volcanoes are a natural and often beautiful part of life on Earth.

That said, here is a flood hazard map in case the eruption causes a major jokulhaup (glacial outburst flood):
 

 


 

October 20, 2014, 11:28 a.m. Pacific: Aviation code: Orange. There has been another very strong quake at the caldera, but per the science board today:

  • The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun was well visible on web-cameras tonight and into the morning. The eruption appeared to continue with similar intensity. Visibility in the area is now very bad and nothing to see on web-cameras.
  • Seismic activity in Tungnafellsjokull glacier had decreased but activity in Bardarbunga is still strong. At 9:40 Saturday morning an M5,4 earthquake was measured in northern Bardarbunga, making it one of the biggest earthquakes that have been measured since the activity started. Over the last two days nine other earthquakes bigger then M4,0 were recorded in Bardarbunga.
  • The GPS station in the centre of Bardarbunga show that the subsidence of the caldera continues with similar rate as before.
  • GPS measurements show minor movements. No great changes were detected.
  • No change was detected in water monitoring that cannot be explained by changing weather.

Reportedly, it is believed the recent big quakes are caused by magma flowing out of the caldera area into the dike from which lava is erupting.

The University of Iceland tweets that the lava field now encompasses 61 km2.

October 19, 2014, 1:52 p.m. Pacific: Aviation code: Orange. Per the IMO geoscientist’s report:

Seismic activity in Bárðarbunga continues. Largest earthquakes past 26 hours:
18 Oct at 20:17 M5.0
18 Oct at 23:04 M4.7
19 Oct at 03:22 M5.2
19 Oct at 09:47 M4.5

The eruption site was visible on webcams this morning, but currently the area is covered with low clouds and no visibility. There is low activity at the eruption site and in the intrusion. A few small quakes were observed in the Öxarfjörður area, and the general activity in Iceland is very low.

Nothing new at the moment, otherwise. Tomorrow the scientists will meet again and give us a new report.

October 18, 2014, 11:18 a.m. Pacific: Aviation code: Orange. Per the IMO geoscientist’s report:

18 October 2014 10:00 – from geoscientist on duty

Activity in the Tungnafellsjökull area has decreased, but is still considerable in Bárðarbunga. An earthquake of magnitude M5.4 occurred at 09:40 UTC this morning in the northern caldera rim of Bárðarbunga. This is one of the largest quakes during the eruption, but no significant changes in caldera subsidence were observed due to it.

Visibility is poor in the eruption area, and webcams have not been useful since yesterday afternoon. Low clouds and precipitation (sleet or snow) currently at the eruption site.

To many of us, this eruption is happening in some exotic locale. For Icelanders, though, it’s in the back yard. Just a reminder:
 

 


 
October 17, 2014, 12:29 p.m. Pacific: Aviation code: Orange.
 

 
 

 
That second tweet was retweeted by the University of Iceland. The UI also tweets that the new volume estimates make this eruption the biggest effusive eruption since Laki’s big one in the 18th century. However, that was a big one – almost 14 km3 – so this Bardarbunga eruption is still tiny in comparison.

Otherwise, scientists report the eruptive activity and caldera subsidence remain about the same. Sulfur dioxide is forecast to be a problem in western Iceland today. The currently proposed likely scenarios for the eruption are:

Three scenarios are considered most likely:

  • The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
  • Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
  • Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.

Other scenarios cannot be excluded.

However, today the Iceland Review reports that new findings may lead to an update in those scenarios.

Also, an Iceland Review team visited the eruption site at Holuhraun last weekend. Every good eruption needs to be visited by writers…

…Once closer, the lava fountains came into view. Surprising was the silence, the dead silence as snow fell around us at night and the earth spewed lava from its belly…

 


 

October 16, 2014, 1:12 p.m. Pacific: Aviation code: Orange. Per the IMO geoscientist:

16 October 2014 10:00 – from geoscientist on duty

During the last 24 hours, about 70 earthquakes have been detected at Bárðarbunga and a dozen in the northern part of the dike. This is somewhat less activity than 24 hours earlier. Two quakes over five in magnitude occurred at the northern caldera rim; an M5.4 at 11:16 yesterday and an M5.0 in the early hours of the morning, at 03:14 today. One earthquake M4.2 occurred later this morning, at 09:25, in a similar location.

Observations of deep thudding sounds were received yesterday while the large earthquake occurred, possibly as a consequence thereof. Scientist went to Askja yesterday but found no signs of a rockfall, which could have caused the noises. Possibly the sounds were from jet aircrafts, passing at the same time.

The Iceland Review reports that the caldera subsided about 5 inches with that big quake.

October 15, 2014, 11:51 a.m. Pacific: Aviation code: Orange. Per scientists, “During last week the eruption continues at a similar intensity and with similar lava flow.” Seismicity is up a bit above the average for the last couple of weeks. The caldera is still subsiding at the same rate. Proposed most likely scenarios remain the same:

Three scenarios are considered most likely:

  • The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
  • Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
  • Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.

Other scenarios cannot be excluded.

SO2 pollution is expected over most of Iceland, except (by this afternoon) eastern Iceland.

October 14, 2014, 11:14 a.m. Pacific: Aviation code: Orange. Not much news on the eruption other than this from the IMO geoscientist:

14 October 2014 10:00 – from geoscientist on duty

Seismicity is similar to last days.

Most earthquakes occurred at Bárðarbunga. The last 24 hours over 80 earthquakes have occurred there and more than 50 in the dike. These numbers are higher than in last week but the difference can probably be explained by frequent lows and storm the first days in October (small earthquakes are not so easily detected when it is windy). During the last few days, weather in the area has been calm.

Three earthquakes, between 4 and 5, have occurred in the area:

19:00 yesterday evening, M 4.7
01:10 last night, M 4.7
06:41 this morning, M 4.5

The Iceland Review notes the eruption’s sulfur dioxide is still a problem in Reykjavik.

I have added a link at the top of this page to the Futurevolc site. Here is a National Geographic video about their work at Bardarbunga:
 

October 13, 2014, 11:02 a.m. Pacific: Aviation code: Orange. Yesterday (sorry, I didn’t post), the geoscientist at IMO reported there were two quakes at the northern caldera rim over magnitude 5 and four that were over magnitude 4. This morning, there is report of a magnitude 5.2 and three quakes over magnitude 4 thus far. Webcams show the eruption continuing per usual.

Today the geoscientist says about the seismicity:

Earthquakes: Seismicity is continuing in the Bárðarbunga area, most of the earthquakes occurred at the northern rim of the caldera. Many earthquakes were also located in the dike – from the eruption site and ca 10 km under Dyngjujökull.

Scientists did an overflight on the 10th to measure the lava field and study the depressions underneath Dyngjujokull with radar.

The Iceland Review reports a volcanologist has said the eruption will end in March 2015. A National Geographic article about a different topic quotes another volcanologist as saying, “We do not know of any volcano in the world where you can tap a shallow chamber and it keeps open this long.” (I’m only an amateur but believe that predicting the end of an eruption is even more difficult than predicting an eruption’s onset – have been trying to work up a blog post about this.)

October 11, 2014, 11:34 a.m. Pacific: Aviation code: Orange. The Iceland Met Office geoscientists will now only be reporting on the website once a day from now on, until there is a change:

11 October 2014 10:00 – from geoscientist on duty

From now on a change is made in these reports from a geoscientist on duty, and they will be published daily at about 10:00 UTC. This may be changed if the eruption changes significantly.

The eruption continues with the same lava flow rate as in past weeks.

Seismicity is similar to previous days:
– There is low activity in the dyke intrusion. Around 20 earthquakes have occurred during the last 24 hours, all within magnitude 1.5 and in the northern part of the intrusion between the eruption site and to the south some kilometers under Dyngjujökull glacier.
– About 80 earthquakes were detected on the caldera rim of Bárðarbunga. The largest earthquakes were at 11:26 and 23:51 yesterday, both of magnitude 4.8. Earthquakes of magnitude 4.7 and 4.5 also occurred and seven between 3.0 and 3.9. Most activity was on the northern caldera rim.

GPS (no significant changes):
– Minor movements of GPS stations in the area.
– Subsidence of the caldera continuing at similar rate.

Water monitoring: No changes.

Gas forecast (latest forecast 09:32 UTC):
Today (Saturday) and tomorrow (Sunday): Northeasterly winds are expected with the possibility of gas pollution south and southwest of the eruption site in an area from Hellisheiði in the west to Hornafjörður in the east.

See forecast maps:
http://www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/textaspar/oskufok/
http://www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/gasdreifing/

There is some video here (with a brief unavoidable commercial) of the eruption from an overflight yesterday.

October 10, 2014, 3:39 p.m. Pacific: Aviation code: Orange. The eruption intensity is reportedly the same, with no other changes mentioned. The same three scenarios are proposed as most likely, though others aren’t ruled out.

It was a darkish dawn this morning, thanks to vog, per the photo by Þórður Arason posted on the Iceland Met Office website:
 

Photo: Þórður Arason.

Photo: Þórður Arason.

October 9, 2014, 4:39 p.m. Pacific: Aviation code: Orange. Scientists say the eruption can’t be viewed through the webcams but no changes are noted.

Vog near the nation’s capital is bad, though!
 

 

 


 

October 8, 2014, 1:26 p.m. Pacific: Aviation code: Orange. Scientists say that the eruption and the subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera continue at the same rates. There is very little seismicity at the northern part of the dyke or around the eruption site. The same three most likely scenarios are proposed, though others aren’t ruled out.

A tycoon who landed near the eruption site without permission is in trouble…at least they’re still alive and unharmed!

Vog from the eruption is visible from space!
 

 


 

October 7, 2014, 10:52 a.m. Pacific: Aviation code: Orange.

Per the University of Iceland:
 

The lava according to field observations 2 and 4 Oct. 2014, measurements of the surface area from 4 October (minimum) and a MODIS thermal image (NASA) taken early this morning (7 Oct. 03:27) which shows the most active parts within the lava field.
 
hitamynd_20141007_0327
 

The weather is preventing scientists (and us) from viewing the eruption through webcams, and it’s also interfering with seismometers a bit. The geoscientist on duty last night said the eruption did look the same as in recent days when there was a glimpse possible during a weather break.

The Iceland Met Office page also has a nice graphic that shows each day’s seismicity on the caldera, as well as the location of Bardarbunga and other nearby volcanoes. Here it is for the past 24 hours (right) compared with seismicity since August 16th (left):
 

cap

The unlabeled hatched area northwest of Bardarbunga is Hofsjokull, a subglacial volcano that happens to be Iceland’s largest active volcano. The dyke, as mentioned in the initial post here, has headed for but never reached Askja volcano (not shown in these maps). Both Hofsjokull and Askja continue to have green aviation codes.


 

October 6, 2014, 12:20 p.m. Pacific: Aviation code: Orange. The eruption continues about the same, say the scientists. The same three most likely future scenarios are proposed, though others aren’t ruled out:

  • The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
  • Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
  • Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.

The Iceland Review tweets that SO2 is expected to reach Reykjavik, the nation’s capital, this evening. Some headline writers yield to the obvious temptations (read the story – “The levels of SO2 should not be high enough to do any harm, but small children and those with lung conditions might want to stay indoors.”)

University of Iceland experts did an overview flight during the weekend and shared some nice images on Twitter, including these:
 

 
 
Cambridge University has a video out today about their luck in having the right instruments at the right place at the right time for this eruption. Nice sum-up and views of the eruption, too!
 


October 5, 2014, 2:08 p.m. Pacific: Aviation code: Orange. Scientists say the eruption continues at similar rates as over recent days. A “new lava front at the southern edge of the main lava flow has been advancing eastwards in recent days.”

Per the geologist on duty at 7 p.m. Iceland time:

5 October 2014 19:00 – from geoscientist on duty

A total of 115 earthquakes have been located today. Additionally, some data has not been processed and the total number will increase. Of the located quakes 21 are larger than magnitude 3. The largest quake of magnitude 5.0 occurred at 16:59; another of magnitude 4.8 at 03:55; and magnitude 4.7 at 11:14.

Most of the seismic activity is in the Bárðarbunga caldera rim, and some activity at the northern end og the dike intrusion and also close to Herðubreiðartögl.

Furthermore, 20 quakes were located offshore several kilometers southwest from Kópasker. The largest of these of magnitude 3.4 occurred at 09:34.

The eruption is currently not visible on webcams due to clouds.

October 4, 2014, 4:41 p.m. Pacific: Aviation code: Orange. Per the geologist on duty at 7 p.m. Iceland time:

4 October 2014 19:00 – from geoscientist on duty

Eight earthquakes greater than magnitude 3 have been located since 07:00 UTC this morning. The largest were in the northern caldera rim of Bárðarbunga, but two quakes were located in the southern rim. The largest quake, of magnitude 5, was observed at 12:05. At 14:34 a quake of magnitude 4.1 was observed, and another of magnitude 4.9 at 18:55.

The earthquake activity is dispersed along the caldera rim and in the northern end of the dike towards the eruption site. Additionally, a few small quakes have been located close to Herðubreið and Herðubreiðartögl.

Currently, the eruption is not visible on the webcams, but earlier today webcams indicated no significant changes in the eruption.

That’s rather more large earthquakes than yesterday, but not a major change. Caldera subsidence, they said earlier today, continues at the same rate.

October 4, 2014, 10:28 a.m. Pacific: Aviation code: Orange. Things continue at the same level, per the Iceland Met Office web page. The University of Iceland page won’t be updated until Monday, unless there are major eruption changes. VAST is still on September 22nd.

We’ve seen the GoPro video (scroll down). Here is video posted on September 1st by Cambridge University.
 


 


 
October 3, 2014, 10:38 a.m. Pacific: Aviation code: Orange. Scientists say very high SO2 levels were measured at the eruption site yesterday. They estimate 35,000 tons of sulfur dioxide are being erupted daily. For comparison, SO2 production from the ongoing Kilauea eruption in Hawaii as of September 25th was 550 tons daily. At its highest activity in 2002-2003, Italy’s Mount Etna released as much as 20,000 tons.

So, yes, the media haven’t picked up on it much yet, but gas hazards rather than pretty pictures are the big story with this eruption at the moment, and it is still unfolding.

The Iceland Review did a story on pollution from the eruption. The Iceland Met Office has begun to make SO2 gas dispersion forecasts (page is only available in Icelandic right now).

The vog may be rusting farm equipment, per this story (link is to the Google-translated English version but in upper right-hand corner there is a link to the original version, in Icelandic).

The scientists also say (PDF) the eruption is continuing at the same intensity. The caldera continues to subside, but there has been a slight decrease in the size of the largest quakes over the last week. Smaller earthquakes, they report, are now recorded in the northern part of the dike and at the eruption site.

The same three scenarios are suggested, though others aren’t ruled out.

October 2, 2014, 11:41 a.m. Pacific: Aviation code: Orange. This University of Iceland tweet from yesterday sums up what little news there is at the moment on the UI and Iceland Met Office websites:
 

 
There is no new SO2 forecast from VAST.

The only news I can find so far today is about the drone video (see below). Here is a lovely image from London’s Telegraph, though:
 

 
 


 

October 1, 2014, 4:22 p.m. Pacific: Aviation code: Orange. No changes noted at the websites. Somebody has made the world’s most awesome drone sales video at Bardarbunga. Here are the volcano highlights from the video:
 

Still no update seen on the SO2 forecast at VAST since September 22nd.

 


 

 
October 1, 2014, 10:28 a.m. Pacific: Aviation code: Orange. The eruption, seismicity, caldera subsidence, and SO2 pollution continue at the same rate, per UI scientists, but as of today they are changing their meeting schedule from daily to Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays.

That rate is prodigious:
 

 

Very high SO2 levels are reported in northeast Iceland, beginning last night.

September 30, 2014, 11:59 a.m. Pacific: Aviation code: Orange. The eruption continues. Scientists say things remain at pretty much the same level, and scenarios for the future remain unchanged.

I have read somewhere, but can’t find the link, that winter conditions will prohibit remote sensing of SO2 at the Holuhraun eruption site. That’s all I know about it – can’t say if this is true, or why it would be. My amateur understanding, however, is that while sulfur dioxide is a problem locally and is occasionally detected in parts of Europe from this eruption, it isn’t at a level that is going to trigger a global winter as some some headlines erroneously proclaim.

On a similar note, VAST still has the September 22nd SO2 forecast model up. I wonder how it has verified.

September 29, 2014, 10:47 a.m. Pacific: Aviation code: Orange.

The first month of the eruption at Iceland’s Bardarbunga Volcano is over. Today, scientists say that the rate of caldera subsidence has slowed down slightly to about 16 inches per day. Seismic activity hasn’t changed much over the last few days, with a few big quakes located on the caldera rim. The eruption shows no signs of declining and the lava field covers an area of 17 mi2 (44 km2).

Recent storms have covered the eruption site in snow:
 

 
SO2 pollution is still a problem in different parts of the country, depending on wind direction.

Scenarios, per scientists today:

Three scenarios are considered most likely:

  • The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
  • Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
  • Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.

Other scenarios cannot be excluded.

 


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