Possible tropical system in Atlantic soon

Update, September 19, 2014, 10:41 a.m.: The tropical wave discussed below went on to become Hurricane Edouard. When a new wave develops, I will do a new post just to avoid confusion.

Update, September 7, 1:23 p.m.: Finally! It looks like a wave that is going to develop into something has come off Africa’s coast.
 
Bruiser

Tropical outlook text (emphasis added):

Tropical Weather Outlook Text

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located
over the far eastern Atlantic is associated with a strong tropical
wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development of this disturbance during the next several days
while it moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…60 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak area of low
pressure located about 675 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands
have diminished and become well separated from the low center.
Environmental conditions are forecast to remain unfavorable for
development during the next several days while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

Forecaster Brown

The GFS has been consistent with this even when it was out in hoodooland. Now it’s close and the model develops this into an intense tropical cyclone. The nice thing is, it stays out to sea. Hope it works out that way. As soon as they identify a TD, I’ll give this proto-Edouard it’s own post.

Update, September 6, 2014: The GFS is now showing not only the system mentioned below but also a new system forming just north of Cape Hatteras and continuing northward along the coast. The NHC is watching it and says that it will merge with a frontal zone. They only give it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical system over the next five days.

Update, September 4, 2014, at 10:35 a.m. Pacific: The GFS is holding strong, and still showing two systems eventually forming. The first one, per the GFS, should start getting together in the next 48 hours. The second is still out in hoodooland, so let’s not worry about that one yet.

The NHC is on top of the first one, of course. Here is their current five-day outlook.
 

two_atl_5d0
 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2014

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure system, is
located a few hundred miles east-southeast of the Cape Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
some development of this disturbance through early next week while
it moves westward at about 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

The GFS shows it lingering in the Atlantic for a while and then approaching the Lesser Antilles but curving north just before it gets there — hoodooland, again.

If and when this gets designated as a tropical depression, I will start another post specifically for it and continue to look here at that second possible system.

Update, September 3, 2014, 1:33 p.m. The GFS still shows that wave coming off Africa tomorrow and intensifying on Saturday. Of interest, though it’s still out in hoodooland, another wave follows that one, per the GFS, and becomes even bigger.

One wave at a time. Here’s the NHC take on things currently:
 

National Hurricane Center

National Hurricane Center

 
 


 
The GFS shows a Cape Verde system forming in 72 hours. Dr. Jeff Masters thinks it won’t be a threat to the Antilles.

Per the National Hurricane Center:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 021743
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dolly, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of west Africa
late Thursday. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for some development through the weekend while the system
moves westward at 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…30 percent.



Categories: Weather

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