A Cape Verde Storm in a Week? No.

Update, August 29, 12:52 p.m. Pacific: With Cristobal no longer tropical, the GFS is now fairly empty for the entire run. NHC only has its eye on a disturbance that may bring rain to the Yucatan Peninsula and perhaps areas around the Bay of Campeche. If anything pops up, I’ll do a new post on it. What showed before was from hoodooland, I guess.

All eyes are on Cristobal right now, but to this amateur the GFS also shows a strong tropical wave coming off the northwestern coast of Africa in six days. That’s too far out for a model to be reliable, but who knows?

The National Hurricane Center, however, is watching a Cape Verde wave that’s already out in the Atlantic:
 

Tropical Weather Outlook Text

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Cristobal, located near the southeastern Bahamas.

1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms. Unfavorable upper-level winds and proximity to dry
air are expected to inhibit development during the next few days.
However, environmental conditions could become more conducive by the
end of the week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

Whatever happens next, it looks like the tropical Atlantic has finally come alive!



Categories: Weather

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