Tropical system in Gulf next week?

June 8th per the GFS model - hoodoo or something meaningful?

June 8th per the GFS model – hoodoo or something meaningful?

 
The current run of the GFS weather model is showing a disturbance starting out in the Eastern Pacific, crossing Central America and then intensifying in the Gulf of Mexico. It seems to linger over the Gulf but may be headed for the Florida panhandle and/or adjacent points by June 8th.

That’s very far ahead in time, and these models do have many errors. It’s something to keep an eye on, though. If nothing else, it might mean a very heavy rain event, should the system form and then get over land.

Edit, June 1, 10:18 a.m. Pacific: To this amateur’s eyes, the GFS seems to have backed off that solution, at least this morning. Now it is showing the Pacific disturbance staying on the west coast of Central America, not passing overland to the Gulf. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 70% chance of development, and it will be bad news for parts of Mexico and Central America:
 


 
The NHC is also keeping an eye on the low pressure system that yesterday’s GFS showed apparently merging with the East Pacific low. However, they only give it a 20% of development at the end of five days.
 



Categories: Weather

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