Southern Philippines could be facing another significant typhoon soon

Update, November 12, 2:30 p.m. Eastern: No, they won’t face another strong storm. Something likely will form close to or over the Philippines soon, but it won’t strengthen into “a weak tropical storm” until it gets out into the South China Sea, fortunately for the Philippines – this per the current JTWC bulletin. Whew! That’s a break for them, although the mainland could have problems.

ABPW10 PGTW 121730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/121730Z-130600ZNOV2013//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WARCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121651ZNOV2013//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 129.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 124.6E, APPROXIMATELY 176 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 121140Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A BROAD, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE WESTERN QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM. A RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASS ALSO SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 20 KNOT WIND BARBS AND ISOLATED 25 KNOT WIND BARBS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 121700) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REISSUED TCFA FOR AREA IN PARAGRAPH
1.B.(1)//
NNNN

**********************************

The current Joint Typhoon Warning Center bulletin is concerning because they use the word significant early in the new cyclone’s potential development. I don’t know if that is a human reaction to the tragedy in the Philippines, or pure scientific concern, but suspect it’s probably a mix of both and there could soon be another typhoon headed for the Philippines.

WTPN21 PGTW 111700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101651Z NOV 13//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 101700)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.2N 130.7E TO 9.8N 121.5E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 111530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 129.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 136.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 129.9E, APPROXIMATELY 473 NM EAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. AN 111231Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE WESTERN QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM. AN 111231Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 20 KNOT WINDS WITH SOME ISOLATED 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 121700Z.//
NNNN

I hope it is canceled. If not, and a named storm develops, the Philippines will probably call it Zoraida. I have no idea what the international name for it will be.



Categories: Random thoughts, Weather

Tags: , , , ,

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: