Tropical Atlantic Update

Well, there’s definitely no need to prepare for hurricanes or tropical storms in the immediate future. I added a short video of Hurricane Ivan (2004) at the end to show what we’re missing.

Location of one of the tropical waves mentioned in today's NHC tropical weather discussion.

Location of one of the tropical waves mentioned in today’s NHC tropical weather discussion.

Tropical Waves

Per the National Hurricane Center’s detailed tropical Atlantic weather discussion this morning, there are two tropical waves out in the mid-Atlantic. They are showing no signs of developing and are too far out there to be of much concern at the moment.

Another wave that was over the far western Caribbean and Central America is now gone.

Of note, there have been a lot of tropical waves in the western Caribbean, close to land, this season. I haven’t mentioned them because they didn’t show any signs of developing, and the NHC didn’t put an invest on any of them, but they have caused much rain and flooding in Central America, and also lahars on some of the many active volcanoes in the area.

Here is video of a lahar coming down the Rio Nima, posted by Guatemala’s INSIVUMEH on June 17, 2013. Its source is the Santiaguito dome at Santa María Volcano.:


Santiaguito erupts frequently, but because lahars happen whenever enough water mixes with loose ash to get it moving, the volcano doesn’t necessary have to be erupting for there to be one. There is a lahar risk at Mount St. Helens today, for example, even though that fire mountain is sleeping.

Atlantic Tropical Outlook

The NHC has an invest (99L) up for a low pressure system about 75 miles north of Bermuda but only gives it a 10% chance of developing over the next five days. Even if it does develop, it will head east, per the current forecast.

As this amateur reads the GFS computer model graphic (which does show a fairly strong Invest 99L on the first frame), there is otherwise, once again, zip, zilch, nada, nothing on the horizon.

And this is good, as a video by mischiefpwns of Hurricane Ivan blowing through Grand Cayman in 2004 shows. (Note the background noise as people try to stay calm by talking. What often is overlooked – until you’ve been in one – is the incredible loudness of it all, a roar that just goes on and on and on and on …)

Categories: Weather

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