Tropical Atlantic Update

Karen is gone, but its remnants are still causing stormy weather off the Carolinas. Meanwhile, the future Lorenzo may be forming out in the Eastern Atlantic.

Former Karen

The weather system that battered the Northeast from northern Virginia up to Maine yesterday has already moved remnants off Karen offshore into the Atlantic. The Charleston, South Carolina, National Weather Service forecaster picks up the tale in their 4:38 a.m. discussion this morning (you don’t need to understand all the terms to understand this, but I put in some links in case, like me, you’re curious about some of the technical jargon):

THE SETUP IS PRIME FOR A GOOD OLD FASHIONED NON-TROPICAL COASTAL STORM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LOW…A VAGUE REMNANT OF EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE KAREN BUT NOW INTER-WOVEN UNDER THE BASE OF A COMPLEX MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WITH A 75 KT UPPER JET RUNNING FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO OVER SOUTH GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AXIS WILL LIE OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS TODAY AND BUCKLE BACK N OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT AS UPPER ENERGY FROM THE SHORT WAVE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EVENTUALLY FEEDS NORTH INTO THE DEVELOPING CUT-OFF SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS.

OVER SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES…THE MAIN IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE INCREASING GUSTY N WINDS AND SOME SOAKING RAINS DEVELOPING THROUGH TONIGHT TO THE E OF I-95…ESPECIALLY OVER THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA. MANY PLACES COULD START THE MORNING WITHOUT RAIN BUT BY LATE DAY AND TONIGHT…RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RAMP UP.

OVER SE GEORGIA ZONES…MODELS PULL SOME LOWER PWATS ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND WE HAVE TRENDED DOWN WITH POPS OVER INLAND AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLACES ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER INCLUDING SAVANNAH COULD GO EITHER WAY TONIGHT…REMAIN DRY OR SEE SOME STEADIER RAINS WRAPPING DOWN THE COAST OVERNIGHT. WE MAINTAINED HIGHER CHANCE POPS PER A MODEL BLENDING SOLUTION.

Future Lorenzo?

The GFS model shows another tropical cyclone developing off the coast of Africa in 36 hours or so. The NHC calls it Invest 98L and gives it a 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours and 50% chance of doing so over the next five days (click image to enlarge):

Invest

Right now the thinking is that it won’t be a threat to any land, i.e., will be another “fish.”

To this amateur’s eyes, the GFS model doesn’t show that yellow zone developing (but that doesn’t mean it won’t; the NHC gives it a low chance).



Categories: Weather

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