Tropical Depression Jerry

Jerry has been putting up a good fight against wind shear and cooler waters, but it's a losing battle, per the NHC.  (GOES imagery)

Jerry has been putting up a good fight against wind shear and cooler waters, but it’s a losing battle, per the NHC. (GOES imagery)

Update, October 3, 11:54 a.m. Eastern: The NHC downgraded Jerry to a tropical depression last night. As of this morning’s latest forecast discussion, they don’t think Jerry is going to be with us more than another day or two.

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Update, October 1, 11:19 a.m. Eastern: Per this morning’s 11 a.m. discussion, the NHC forecaster felt that there is too much shear over Jerry for it to strengthen more.  It is still a tropical storm, but over the next 5 days, or perhaps sooner, increased shear will probably make the system weaken.

The cost of wind shear:  Jerry's low-level center is exposed just to the west of that blob of disorganized convection.  This is not a healthy-looking tropical cyclone.  (GOES)

The cost of wind shear: Jerry’s low-level center is exposed just to the west of that blob of disorganized convection. This is not a healthy-looking tropical cyclone. (GOES)

 

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As of 11 a.m., the National Hurricane Center meteorologists decided that this system, formerly TD11, is now at tropical storm strength. This is what it looks like as of the last GOES images (click on image to enlarge):

Jerry GOES pics


Right now the GFS shows Jerry just kind of circling around in mid-ocean, with no steering currents definitively guiding it. It may pulse up and down in intensity. Here is the NHC’s bulletin this morning:

WTNT41 KNHC 301432
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
1100 AM AST MON SEP 30 2013

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE PERSISTENT…AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BOTH 35 KT…AND THE CYCLONE IS BEING UPGRADED TO
A TROPICAL STORM ON THIS ADVISORY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA…HOWEVER THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE STORM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT THIS TIME…THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HOSTILE ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST A LITTLE STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD…THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE…AND THEREFORE THE WIND SPEED FORECAST FOR THAT TIME IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE.

CENTER FIXES FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE STORM HAS MOVED A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED…AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 090/6. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT AN AMPLIFYING MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF JERRY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS STEERING SCENARIO SHOULD RESULT IN THE STORM DECELERATING AND MOVING IN A CLOCKWISE LOOP DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS…AS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD…THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT JERRY MAY NOT GET PICKED UP BY THE NEXT TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES…AND THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST.



Categories: Weather

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