Tropical Atlantic update

Hurricane Humberto (as with all images in these posts, click to enlarge)

Hurricane Humberto (as with all images in these posts, click to enlarge)

Gabrielle and Humberto are still around, and a new tropical depression is about to bring some serious flooding to Mexico.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle

After causing only slight damage in Bermuda, this tropical system has been heading northward, pulsing up and down in intensity.

Gabrielle is a tropical storm right now (after weakening to a tropical depression overnight). As of this morning, the NHC expects the system to lose its warm core (becoming extratropical) in the next 24 hours or so, and then it will be absorbed in a mid-latitude trough near Canada’s Atlantic coast.

Hurricane Humberto

Humberto is a category 1 hurricane now, and continues to do its thing out in the Atlantic. The NHC foresees weakening in the cyclone’s immediate future to tropical storm strength, but over the longer term the GFS, at least, shows Humberto will reintensify.

It’s not a major storm, but it looks likely to be with us for a while (at least 180 more hours, per the GFS).

Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche

As of 2 p.m. Eastern, NHC experts think that a tropical depression is forming. It’s the red circle that’s currently known as Invest 93L:

TD in Campeche

Note the mention about life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Earlier today, Jeff Masters described it much better than I could:

The computer models predict a landfall location along the Mexican coast between Veracruz and a location a few hundred miles south of the Texas/Mexico border by early next week. The storm is expected to maintain a forward speed of about 5 mph during the coming five days, and this slow motion will potentially allow 93L enough time to intensify into a hurricane before landfall. The high levels of moisture and slow motion of 93L make it a very dangerous rainfall threat, and I expect rainfall amounts of 5-10 inches will affect portions of the Mexican coast between Veracruz and Brownsville, Texas, over the next five days. An added danger is the presence of tropical disturbance 90E in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, on the other side of Mexico. If 93L intensifies sufficiently, it could draw in the moisture from 90E across Southern Mexico, resulting in torrential rains on both the Pacific and Atlantic sides of Southern Mexico.

Here is how they see it in Mexico (Spanish).

Note the darker orange colors (storm centers) in the waters on both sides of Mexico.  (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional)

Note the darker orange colors (storm centers) in the waters on both sides of Mexico. (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional)



Categories: Weather

Tags: , , , ,

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: