Tropical Atlantic update

Gabrielle is another one-day wonder, but it might regenerate in a few days; even if so, it won’t threaten land as it should be past the Bahamas by then and headed out to see sea (it has been a long day).

The GFS is still gung-ho on developing the next two waves coming off Africa, and again it shows the second wave (proto-Ingrid?) quickly developing, absorbing the first wave (proto-Humberto?) in the process.

The NHC has located “proto-Humberto” already as an area of interest. See it there in the eastern Atlantic (yellow)?

NHC tropical outlook

However, they are more interested in something in the western Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche (the orange circle).

Here’s their whole tropical weather outlook (I have bolded their reference to the second wave [“proto-Ingrid”], which may develop big-time):

000
ABNT20 KNHC 052328
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 5 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE…LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

DATA FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO DID NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION…THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL POSSIBLE…AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE LOW MOVES INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE…50 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND A MEDIUM CHANCE…50 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION…HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ AND TAMAULIPAS THROUGH FRIDAY.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS…ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH…EXTENDS FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES NEAR TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE NORTHWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ANY DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS…AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE…20 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM COULD ALSO OCCUR IN A FEW DAYS WHEN IT INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE OR ITS REMNANTS AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE…30 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. DEVELOPMENT…IF ANY…OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO DRY AIR…AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VERY UNFAVORABLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE…10 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND A LOW CHANCE…10 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS…

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS…AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE…NEAR 0 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND A MEDIUM CHANCE…40 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

Here is Jeff Masters’ take this morning on the future situation:

Elsewhere in the Atlantic

A tropical wave over the extreme Southwestern Gulf of Mexico’s Bay of Campeche (Invest 99L) will move ashore on the Mexican coast near Tampico on Friday. Satellite images show that 99L has a moderate area of heavy thunderstorms that are slowly increasing in size and intensity. Wind shear is moderate and water temperatures are a warm 30°C, so 99L will likely show steady development until landfall on Friday. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day and 2-day odds of development at 30%. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to check out the disturbance Thursday afternoon.

A tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic about 450 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands (Invest 98L) is headed west-northwest at about 10 mph. Satellite images show that 98L has a decent amount of spin, but a very limited amount of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is moderate and water temperatures are a warm 28°C, so 98L may show some slow development today and Friday. By Saturday, 98L will encounter drier and more stable air, and be over waters barely warm enough to support a tropical cyclone–26.5°C. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day and 2-day odds of development at 10%.

A strong tropical wave is predicted to emerge from the coast of Africa on Saturday, and the GFS model develops this wave into a tropical depression near the Cape Verde Islands by Monday. The storm is expected to track to the northwest into a region of ocean where very few tropical cyclones ever make the long crossing of the Atlantic Ocean to threaten North America. Both the GFS and European models predict that this system will develop into a hurricane next week. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 30%.



Categories: Weather

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