I’m doing these separately, rather than just editing a single post like a live-blog, because they’re time-dependent and also a single post tends to get buried as the end-of-week posts come out.
The computer models are getting interesting.
Maybe Gabrielle and Humberto soon?
If this amateur is reading the current GFS graphic correctly (and that is a big “if”), in three and a half days we might be looking at a named system in the eastern Atlantic as well as a tropical wave coming off Africa that could develop into something big, though there is no indication as yet of where it would go once (and if) if developed.
GFS at 84 hours:
GFS at 108 hours:
GFS at 132 hours:
Well, 132 hours is five and a half days and that is definitely a mystery world where any guess might become a reality. At that point there could also even be something developing in the west Atlantic, though I don’t know that it looks formed enough at this point to be named Ingrid.
There does seem to be a consistency with this GFS run, though, and certainly the time frame is much sooner than earlier false alarms that always seemed to promise much at 180 hours but never delivered.
Time will tell.
Current NHC Tropical Outlook
Today meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center, being responsible scientists, are not discussing any of that in their tropical outlook – it’s too far down the road. They still have an eye on things closer to home that are happening now:
ABNT20 KNHC 041147
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 4 2013
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE…40 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH…AND A HIGH CHANCE…60 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. WHETHER A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS OR NOT…LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS…THE VIRGIN ISLANDS…PUERTO RICO…AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON…IF NECESSARY.
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. DEVELOPMENT…IF ANY…WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE…20 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND A LOW CHANCE…20 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
By the way, the “Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft” is the Hurricane Hunters. They have a terrific website that is worth exploring in depth now, before things really start kicking.
I really enjoyed our hurricane-free August, though it gave me little to post about. Unfortunately, things are probably going to get more active soon, either as the GFS currently predicts or in some other way. It is, after all, the peak of the season.