In case that’s not readable, the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook text last night says:
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO NEAR HISPANIOLA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE LARGE DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE…NEAR 10 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND A MEDIUM CHANCE…30 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
I just wanted to mention it because some of the models appear to be showing a little development over the longer term. Computer weather forecast models are not all that accurate many days in advance, so it’s just a glimmer, nothing more. Do stay tuned to the NHC for further updates, though, and I’ll keep an eye on it, too.
It will be Erin, if it develops into the next named Atlantic basin storm.