July 10, 2013, at 9:32 a.m.
Per the National Hurricane Center, Chantal has weakened and might not be a tropical cyclone any more. They will decide later today.
Here is the current five-day forecast track:
The first named Cape Verde-type tropical system of 2013 has formed!
Right now, it doesn’t look like this will develop into a hurricane. In their forecast discussion #2, the National Hurricane Center notes:
THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE AREA IS NOT STRONG AT THIS TIME…BUT THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT WESTERLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE IN 1-2 DAYS. ALSO…CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THAT TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE DEEP TROPICS HAVE DIFFICULTY STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD…AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS. BEYOND 2 DAYS…IT IS EXPECTED THAT CHANTAL WILL HAVE INTERACTED WITH THE LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA…WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING IN THE 3-4 DAY TIME FRAME. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD…THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES OVER THE FORECAST TRACK AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING. CONFIDENCE IN THE 3-5 DAY INTENSITY FORECAST…HOWEVER…IS NOT HIGH.
Here is their current five-day forecast track: