Popocatépetl, June 18th

CENAPRED

That is the view a few minutes ago from CENAPRED’s Tochimilco cam. It was the clearest view – the summit was pretty much socked in, and now is totally obscured.

That’s a plume going straight up, and its gray tinge

Another explosion at Popocatépetl this afternoon

CENAPRED

A busy day today!

At 1:23 p.m. local today, Don Goyo had an explosion that was the biggest I’ve seen since watching this volcano over the last year or two (note: I’m an amateur who just cruises volcano cams on the Net and loves geology).

The volcano then settled down to its baseline pattern and CENAPRED did not raise the alert level – it’s still Yellow, Phase 2.

I’m not going to start live-blogging again until the alert level is raised again, if and when it ever is. However, this explosivity seems new, though it’s certainly not anywhere close to what Popo has done in the past.

Will be sure to watch it more frequently and post about any major changes. You can do this, too, by clicking the CENAPRED link in the side bar. Their website is in Spanish but they do have an English bulletin there, as well as links to the webcams (“imagen”).

Here is CENAPRED’s special bulletin from today, translated with the help of Google Translate:

14:00 June 17 (June 17 1900 GMT)

Today at 13:23 h an explosion occurred at Popocatépetl volcano that generated an eruptive ash column over 4 km high and threw incandescent fragments at distances up to 2 km from the crater, which by its high temperature caused small fires in the grasslands (see figure 6), (see Figure 7). The ash has been carried to the northwest by the prevailing winds in the area, so it can be expected that in the coming hours ashfall will be recorded in populations of this sector, even in the southeastern portion of the City of Mexico. At the time of this report, the volcano has returned to its previous levels of activity. This type of event is among the scenarios considered in the current alert level, so the Volcanic Alert semaphore remains at Yellow Phase 2.

Edit: You can also view the event at Webcams de Mexico, even if you don’t speak Spanish. On their page, under “Archivo de videos (Timelapses)” select June 17 (it’s easy with the popup calendars) and “Todo el día” in the “Periodo” box. It goes pretty quickly. Try selecting 5 fps to slow it down.

Edit: Wait! This is better. Webcams de Mexico made a YouTube video and Erik Klemetti discusses it – check out the shock wave:

The American Civil War 150th Anniversary – June 17-23, 1863

Here is a look at events in the Civil War 150 years ago this week.

Source is interactive.

But first, a look at what US General Rosecrans has been doing in Middle Tennessee (31, 32).

The Tullahoma Campaign

He ultimately intends to bring his Army of the Cumberland against Chattanooga, but CS General Braxton Bragg’s Army of Tennessee is in his way, occupying some challenging topography – the Highland Rim, a series of small hills (700 feet in elevation, on average) that can only be crossed through a few gaps.

Guy’s Gap and its turnpike is guarded by CS General Leonidas Polk’s corps. CS General William Hardee’s corps guard Bell Buckle Gap (railroad) and Liberty Gap (turnpike) at Wartrace, as well as Hoover’s Gap (turnpike) at Beech Grove.

Although he’s been pressured by President Lincoln, General-in-Chief Halleck and Secretary of War Stanton to move out since January, Rosecrans has taken time to think things through and now plans to use deception and speed to outmaneuver Bragg and drive his army out of Tennessee with a series of light attacks and aggressive actions.

General Bragg, meanwhile,

Random thoughts: A core concern

I just found XKCD recently. Check it out for many other good, albeit nerdy cartoons!

Jefferson Davis – Episode One of “An American President” (continued)

Source

Today I am 22 years old, and when I was a boy and dreamed with my eyes open, as most do, I thought of ripening fame at this age, of wealth and power, but as I grew older I saw the folly of this but still thought, at the age of 22, I should be on the highway to all ambition desired, and lo! I am 22 and the same obscure poor being that I was at 15.

– Second Lieutenant Jefferson Davis
Fort Winnebago, Wisconsin Territory
June 3, 1829

Be careful what you wish for, Lieutenant Davis.

Early Career

Jefferson Davis graduated from West Point in 1829 and received a commission

Popocatépetl restless today

CENAPRED

The Colossus of Puebla was doing its thing today. Here is CENAPRED‘s 11 a.m. bulletin in English

Jefferson Davis – Episode One of “An American President”

As promised, here is the first of a few more in-depth looks at Jefferson Davis this month.

It matters. While researching things today, I noticed this:

Google believes Jefferson Davis was born in the Confederacy in 1808! (click to enlarge)

How does that go again … “The one who does not remember history is bound to live through it again.”

I certainly don’t want to live through the Civil War again.

Pursuit of happiness

Born in Kentucky in 1808 – some 16 years after the state had separated from Virginia and joined the Union – Jefferson was the youngest of 10 kids and too young to remember all the moves his father Samuel Davis put the family through for two years, as he tried to better himself economically.

Part of the old Natchez Trace. Source: Chris M. Morris

Sometimes family breadwinners struggle the same way today, but

Random thoughts: Need a little pick-me-up?

Here are two feel-good videos, one of which I have to link to as WordPress doesn’t allow iFrames.

Prince Harry at bat

First, if you’ve overdosed on severe weather and wonder what else is happening in the world, let’s look at a prince playing baseball in Harlem, with commentary by one of the local RBI enthusiasts: “This prince rocks!“

Supercell

Next, here is why the best storm chasers do what they do – not for the adrenaline rush or for ego. They do it because storms can be beautiful. One chaser, after four years, was able to capture a little bit of the experience on video. This is a supercell, and the rotating part is called a mesocyclone. Tornadoes tend to drop out of mesocyclones.

Significant severe weather outbreak possible in upper Midwest/lower Great Lakes this afternoon/evening

Update: 3:50 p.m. Eastern, June 13, 2013

What was “only” severe weather is still just that, but it has been pretty heavy in the forecast region today, per SPC storm reports (these are reports only and may not be complete or verify with time):

Damaging storms that also traumatize us

Storm Prediction Center, NOAA. Day 1 and 2 convective outlooks for wind. (Click to enlarge)

The American Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions are in for some strong winds and severe weather, today in the Midwest and tomorrow in the Mid-Atlantic states, per the Storm Prediction Center.

The potential is there, today and tomorrow, for another big windstorm like last year’s derecho on June 29th.

It may or may not verify – such things are very difficult to predict, but certainly there is going to be a lot of stormy weather in these areas, and it’s the kind that depends on atmospheric factors, not the sun, so it’s going to continue overnight.

The SPC and other weather offices and emergency notification sources are quite good at what they do, and I only blog about it when the SPC uses the word “outbreak” in their forecasts, because they use it rarely and the potential threat then justifies spreading the word in every way possible.

Of course, severe weather, particularly tornadoes, happens according to its own rhythms, not humanity’s. Oklahoma’s recordbreaking El Reno EF-5 tornado,